Futures Trading Assignment

Note that you must obtain the correct futures prices. Use settlement prices. How to obtain these prices will be demonstrated in one of the first four lectures. Please use the RBA website for figures.

Your full report on all of your trading activity and on the announcement made by the RBA on 5 April 2016 should be limited to 1500.It is expected that approximately 1000 words will be devoted to Part 1.The report must be submitted by 20 May 2016.

Part I

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board will meet on Tuesday 5 April 2016 and at 2:30 pm on that day will announce what the overnight cash rate will be. Using the end-of-day settlement prices for the April 2016 30-day interbank cash rate futures contract prices from 7 March 2016 to 4 April 2016, provide an analysis of what the probabilities were before the announcement that the RBA would change interest rates on 7 April.

Please consider followings:
For Part 1
-Expect probability close to 0 for a change
-Watch AUD/USD if this falls, there will be even lower probability of a cut
-RBA want lower currency to create inflation
-Turnbull government-potential double dissolution
-Brought budget forward to May 3
-Potential election on June

Part II

Today is 1 March 2016 and you have been allocated $A10 million that you will be required to use to trade futures contracts. The following will be your trading instructions over coming weeks.

Set D (I am using set D)

Trading in the 90-day bank-accepted bill contract

On Tuesday 12 April 2016 you will be required to enter into four June 2016 90-day bank accepted bill contracts. You may enter into these contracts as a buyer or as a seller.

Whether you enter into these contracts as a buyer or a seller will depend on your expectations as to the likely direction of short-term interest rates. Again you should state a logical basis for entering into these contracts as a buyer or seller. For example, you might speculate that short-term interest rates are likely to rise or fall. Note that again the basis of your speculation is of lesser importance here than is demonstrating that you understand fully the nature of the transactions that you enter into.

Using the closing price of the June 2016 90-day bank accepted bill contract on Tuesday 12 April 2016, detail your financial position after you have entered into these four contracts. You should ignore margin calls but you should include in your discussion the deposit that you were required to provide.

On Thursday 12 May 2016 you must close out your position and do so at the closing price of the June 2016 90-day bank accepted bill contract.

Provide a full report of the profit or loss that you made and explain why this occurred.

Trading in the 10-year Treasury bond futures contract

On Thursday 24 March 2016 you will be required to enter into five June 2016 10-year bond futures contracts. You may enter into these contracts as a buyer or as a seller.

Whether you enter into these contracts as a buyer or a seller will depend on your expectations as to the likely direction of long-term interest rates. Again you should state a logical basis for entering into these contracts as a buyer or seller. For example, you might speculate that long-term interest rates are likely to rise or fall. Note that again the basis of your speculation is of lesser importance here than is demonstrating that you understand fully the nature of the transactions that you enter into.

Using the closing price of the June 2016 10-year bond futures contract on Thursday 24 March 2016, detail your financial position after you have entered into these five contracts. You should ignore margin calls but you should include in your discussion the deposit that you were required to provide.

On Tuesday 10 May 2016 you must close out your position and do so at the closing price of the June 2016 10-year bond futures contract.

Provide a full report of the profit or loss that you made and explain why this occurred.

Trading in the SPI200 futures contract

On Tuesday 3 May 2016 you will be required to enter into six June 2016 SPI200 futures contracts. You may enter into these contracts as a buyer or as a seller.

Whether you enter into these contracts as a buyer or a seller will depend on your expectations as to the likely direction of the Australian share market. Again you should state a logical basis for entering into these contracts as a buyer or seller. For example, you might speculate that growth of the Chinese economy is likely to be weaker (stronger) than expected, suggesting that the Australian market will fall (rise). Note that again the basis of your speculation is of lesser importance here than is demonstrating that you understand fully the nature of the transactions that you enter into.

Using the closing price of the June 2016 SPI200 futures contract on Tuesday 3 May 2016, detail your financial position after you have entered into these six contracts. You should ignore margin calls but you should include in your discussion the deposit that you were required to provide.

On Tuesday 10 May 2016 you must close out your position and do so at the closing price of the June 2016 SPI200 futures contract.

Provide a full report of the profit or loss that you made and explain why this occurred.

Trading in the SPI200 futures contract

On Thursday 31 March 2016 you will be notified that your company has a reasonably broadly based portfolio of Australian shares valued on that date at $40,587,239. You will be required to seek protect the value of that portfolio as the company intends to liquidate the portfolio on or about 20 May 2016. You will seek to do this by entering into a number of June 2016 SPI200 futures contracts as either a buyer or a seller.

On Thursday 12 May 2016 you will be notified that the portfolio of shares has been sold for
$45,987,431. The increase in the value of the portfolio was largely due the fact that it was not as broadly based as you had been told, and two companies that formed a large part of the portfolio had been subject to takeover offers during the period.

You must now on Thursday 12 May 2016 close out your position and do so at the closing price of the June 2016 SPI200 futures contract.

Provide a full report of the profit or loss that you made and explain why this occurred.
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Posted on May 12, 2016Author TutorCategories Question, Questions