You are an entrepreneur that has several business investments in real estate, restaurants, and retail stores. You are looking for your next investment opportunity for you and your private equity investment company. You have found two possible alternatives to invest in that will payoff in the next 10 years. Here are the descriptions of the two options.

Option A: Real estate development. This is a risky opportunity with the possibility of a high payoff, but also with no payoff at all. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the Net Present Value of the cash flow and probabilities.
High NPV: $5 million, Pr = 0.5
Medium NPV: $2 million, Pr = 0.3
Low NPV: $0, Pr = 0.2
Option B: Retail franchise for Just Hats, a boutique type store selling fashion hats for men and women. This also is a risky opportunity but less so than option A. It has the potential for less risk of failure, but also a lower payoff. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the Net Present Value of the cash flow and probabilities.
High NPV: $3 million, Pr = 0.75
Medium NPV: $2 million, Pr = 0.15
Low NPV: $1 million, Pr = 0.1
Assignment
Discuss an analysis of these two investments. Use expected value to determine which of these you should choose. Do your analysis in Excel.
Discuss a report to your private investment company and explain your analysis and your recommendation. Provide a rationale for your decision.

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Posted on May 16, 2016Author TutorCategories Question, Questions