The Iranian Assassination Plot

The United States of America has, with time, had some of the most exciting international issues with the Middle-East nations. Some of these nations like Saudi Arabia enjoy significant diplomatic ties with the U.S, while others like Iran do not. This has resulted in tension amongst countries from this common region. It goes without mentioning that even in the recent past, the Gulf War was led by George W. Bush while the U.S protected Saudi. This prompted Iran quarrels with neighboring nations. Some of the conflicts experienced included the Iran-Contra affair. This document will analyze the Iran Assassination Plot and the threat it posed in three critical perspectives; the Starburst, Pestle, and the SWOT evaluations. Further, it will give discussions of each analysis.

Starburst Analysis

WHO	WHAT	SO WHAT	WHEN	WHERE	WHY	HOW
The key figures in the Iranian assassination plot were the then Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States of America Adel al-Jubeir and two Iranian citizens Gholam Shakuri and  Mansour Arbabsiar.   The main target here was the ambassador who’s alleged assassination plot was tied to the Iran and its administration. The conspirators and planners of the plot were to two Iranian nationals.	The motive of this assassination plot was to kill the Saudi ambassador.	Killing ambassador Adel al-Jubeir was critical in ensuring this ensuring his diplomatic efforts to counter terror attacks were suppressed.	This attack was to take place on the 11th of October 2011. This was after a prior meeting in May when Mansour had met the Mexican agent.	The attack was planned to take place in a restaurant where the ambassador was to check-in. The assassin would later proceed to bomb the Saudi embassy in Washington D.C.	Eliminating the ambassador was ideal for the Iranians because of their Saudi enjoyed great diplomatic ties with the U.S while that of Iran was hostile. This would later give room for terror attacks.	This assassination was to take place using explosives. The two Iranian nationals were to allegedly hire a Mexican who would assassinate the ambassador in a restaurant.

 

The starburst analysis attempts to address several concerns about the Iranian Assisnation Plot. This tool of analysis addresses these concerns by attempting to seek clarifications in various perspectives. Its asks questions like who, what, so what, when, where, why and how. From these questions a holistic view of the case study would have been arrived at. Without focusing on a particular question in a given sequence, this section is going to briefly give an overview of the analysis by describing what it has achieved. From the starburst analysis, it is vividly clear that there various levels of stakeholders in the case study. They include the target, the masterminds and the hired assasins. The motive of the entire plot was to eliminate the ambassador who was thetarget on behalf of the Iranian government operatives. The Iranians are not in good diplomatic terms with the Saudi government while America enjoys a great relationship with the Saudi. Assassinating the Saudi ambassador to the U.S would have provoked the U.S resulting into War. This assaination plot plans began earlier in May 2011 when one of the Iranian by the name Mansour  contacted the alleged assasins in mexico. After planning, the actual assassination was to take place  on 11^th of October  2011. The actual attack was to take place in a restaurant in Washington D.C and afterwards the hired agents were to bomb the Saudi embassy. The assassination was to take place using explossives (Stewart, 2011).

PESTLE analysis

            The external environment surrounding this assassination plot can be evaluated using a variety of factors. From a glance, it is evident that the plot to assassinate a Middle-East ambassador on diplomatic mission in the U.S can be as a result of several predictable factors not limited to politics, economy and societal orientations. The use of PESTLE analysis would bring out these external factors surrounding this assassination plot.

 

Political

The quad’s force is a unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and one of the people accused of the plot is one of its members. The attack was meant to carry out an unconventional war. As stated earlier in the starburst analysis, the diplomatic ties among the three stakeholder nations and their citizens conflict as a variety of political interests. This promts Iran to have the interest of eliminating the Saudi diplomat so as to trigger a war (Gause III, 2016).

Strengths

The commanders of the attack are elected by Khamenanyi, who is a supreme leader. Also, Qasem Suleiman, who was the commander of the attack, is a very powerful man close to the supreme leader. He is also known to be one of the most important men in Iraq. 

Weaknesses

Suleiman’s prominence has lured some jealousies in some branches. Also, he has been involved in some conflicts with other commanders in IRGC over his authorities and powers. 

Economy

Having poor diplomatic ties with the U.S, it is likely that their economic intergration would also not be health. Instead, the U.S would and have started imposing sanctions on Iran. On the other hand the U.S enjoys promising economic relationship with Saudi Arabia as a result of their strong diplomatic ties (Ekşi, 2017).

Strengths

The IRGC is known to be the most significant and powerful force in the economy, which gives the Quds force the strength to win the attack. The IRGC affiliates most of the companies that were involved in the purchase of the explosives. 

Weaknesses

In 2015, the president of Iran tried to restrict IRGC after the nuclear deal to attract investors. He stopped contracts and transactions with most of the IRGC affiliated companies. Therefore, the open market might have negative effects on the economy of IRGC. 

Social

Strengths

The Quds force can recruit by setting most of their offices in the regions with people that are known to be involved in attacks. Also, they manipulate the people who are economically unstable to accept their deals easily. Therefore, even paying them small amounts of money to carry the attacks is very easy. 

Weaknesses

The people recruited want the money, which might be uneconomical to the Quds force. 

Technology

 

Strengths

The Quds force is knowledgeable in technology, for instance, telecommunications. They can track calls. Also, they are competent in the use of high technological weapons such as C4 explosives. 

Weakness

The case shows that the United States is well armed with the necessary technology to counter-terrorist activities. Also, better communication and tracking devices that help them to follow attackers and their various activities. 

Legal

Strengths

The recruited Iranian American, Arbabsiar, has both US and Iranian passports, which gives him legal permission to move freely from Iran to the US. Also, the Quds force is under the highest power in Iran. Thus, their activities are justified internationally. Also, the Quds force is known to be a government agency. 

Environmental

In case of a retaliatory attack on Iran by the U.S, there will result in the release of harmful gasses into the atmosphere, which destroys the ozone layer. Also, after the attack, there will be a waste after the demolition of buildings and other properties, thus polluting the environment.

 

SWOT Analysis

Strengths One strength is the provision of material support to the Quds Force in Iran. In 2007, the US Treasury Department offered material support to the Quds Force and the Taliban hence meaning that the US supports terrorist organizations Possession of the US passport, which allows them to move to the US without any legal problems.      .

Weaknesse The killing of innocent lives during the assassination Border issues where the terrorists may get identified. The Quds Force had trained Ababsiar in Iran. Training is an essential security strength that enables the men on the ground to act as directed by their superiors.

Opportunities Legal international traveling through possession of more than one passport. Availability of funds  use of a wireless cash transfer method to send money to an FBI undercover account for CS- 1. The ability of rival security groups to monitor the offender’s phone calls is also one of the opportunities. Arbabsiar’s cousin was a big military general in the Iranian military who was involved in security matters outside Iran, such as the bombing of Iraq.

Threats   Well trained and experienced FBI agents. Also, the case shows high ability in US intelligence.  The US portrays a high tolerance towards terrorism, which is a weakness to the Quds force.  Also, the US can counter terrorism at a fast pace. Confidential Source who informed the US government about the attack Border security, who can identify terrorists.

 

 

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

One strength is the provision of material support to the Quds Force in Iran. In 2007, the US Treasury Department offered material support to the Quds Force and the Taliban hence meaning that the US supports terrorist organizations. Another strength is the use of phone calls to communicate as opposed to facing- to- face conversations (Mabon, 2018).

One weakness of the assassination plot is that innocent people would be killed. During the July 17, 2011 meeting, CS- 1 raised the issue of killing innocent bystanders during the assassination. Another weakness is the breach of information by any party before or after the assassination that would lead to their apprehension and arrest (Savage & Shane, 2011).

Opportunities

One opportunity is the use of a wireless cash transfer method to send money to an FBI undercover account for CS- 1. This transaction was carried out between August 1 and 9, 2011, by Arbabsiar after seeking approval from Shakuri (Savage & Shane, 2011). Also, training was an essential opportunity that would promote the success of the plot. After the arrest of Ababsiar, he admitted that he was recruited, funded and directed by senior officials in Iran’s Quds Force.

Threats

One threat is the breach of information at any stage of the assassination plot. During the whole murder plot, it is evident that CS- 1 was recording all the information which was then used against Ababsiar after his arrest.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this Iranian assassination plot has raised tension in the Gulf, and America has been looking for ways to counter it. The U.S is much interested in the Gulf as a result of diplomatic and economic ties with nations like Saudi. Iran is a threat to such nations. Putting pressure on them may push them to rally behind countries that are not allied to the U.S.  This might help Iran boost its military through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The U.S should tread with caution because immense pressure on the revolutionary group will pull like-minded nations and trigger a war. Instead. The U.S should seek diplomatic conflict resolution and withdraw and restrain from imposing more sanctions on nations like Iran.

References

Ekşi, M. (2017). Regional Hegemony Quests in the Middle East from the Balance of Power System to the Balance of Proxy Wars: Turkey as Balancing Power for the Iran-Saudi Rivalry. Gazi Akademik Bakış, 11(21), 133-156.

Gause III, F. G. (2016). The Future of US-Saudi Relations: The Kingdom and the Power. Foreign Aff., 95, 114.

Mabon, S. (2018). Muting the trumpets of sabotage: Saudi Arabia, the US and the quest to securitize Iran. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 45(5), 742-759.

Savage, C., & Shane, S. (2011). Iranians accused of a plot to kill Saudis’ US envoy. New York Times, 11.

Stewart, S. (2011, October 20). Reflections on the Iranian Assassination Plot. Retrieved from https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/reflections-iranian-assassination-plot.