past 6 weeks:

Week Of    Pints Used

August 31     360

September 7    389

September 14    410

September 21    381

September 28    368

October 5    374

a) Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average.

b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12.

c) Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and a= .2.

2. Income at the law firm Smith and Jones for the period February to July was as follows:

Month    February    March    April    May    June    July

Income

(In $ Thousand)    70.0    68.5    64.8    71.7    71.3    72.8

Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast the law firm’s August income. Assume that the initial forecast for February is $65 000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are a=.1 and ß=.2.

3. Page Engineering designs and constructs air conditioning and heating systems for hospitals and clinics. Currently, the company’s staff is overloaded with design work. There is a major design project due in 8 weeks. The penalty for completing the design late is $14 000 per week, since any delay will cause the facility to later than anticipated, and cost the client significant revenue. If the company uses its inside engineers to complete the design, it will have to pay them overtime for all work. Page has estimated that it will cost $12 000 per week (wages and overhead), including late weeks, to have company engineers complete the design. Page is also considering having an outside engineering firm do the design. A bid of $92 000 has been received for the completed design. Yet another option for completing the design is to conduct a joint design by having a third engineering company complete all electromechanical components of the design at a cost of $56 000. Page would then complete the rest of the design and control systems at an estimated cost of $30 000.

Page has estimated the following probabilities of completing the project within various time frames when using each of the three options. Those estimates are shown in the following table:

Probability of Completing the Design

Option    On Time    1 week Late    2 weeks Late    3 Weeks Late

Internal Engineers     .4    .5    .1    €”€”€”-

External Engineers    .2    .4    .3    .1

Joint Design    .1    .3    .4    .2

What is the best decision based on an expected monetary value criterion? (Note: You want the lowest EMV because we are dealing with costs in this problem.)

4. McBurger, Inc. wants to redesign its kitchens to improve productivity and quality. Three designs, called designs K1, K2, and K3, are under consideration. No matter which design is used, daily demand for sandwiches at a typical McBurger restaurant is for 500 sandwiches. A sandwich costs $1.30 to produce. Non-defective sandwiches sell, on the average, for $2.50 per sandwich. Defective sandwiches cannot be sold and are scrapped.

The goal is to choose a design that maximizes the expected profit at a typical restaurant over a 300-day period. Designs K1, K2, and K3 cost $100 000, $130 000, and $180 000 respectively. Under design K1, there is a .80 chance that 90 out of each 100 sandwiches are non-defective and a .20 chance that 70 out of each 100 sandwiches are non-defective. Under design K2, there is a .85 chance that 90 out of each 100 sandwiches are non-defective and a .15 chance that 75 out of each 100 sandwiches are non-defective. Under design K3, there is a .90 chance that 95 out of each 100 sandwiches are non-defective and a .10 chance that 80 out of each 100 sandwiches are non-defective. What is the expected profit level of the design that achieves the maximum expected 300-day profit level?

44

Similar to the example in the Power of Place reading on pp. 27-29, I would like you to DRAW a cognitive map of your childhood neighborhood, as you remember it. Choose the most vivid memory of your childhood and draw a cognitive map of the place you live and the surrounding neighborhood. (Yes, get out your crayons, ink pens, colored pencils, etc. and a clean sheet of paper for this part of the assignment)

1. Place your house/apartment building/farm in the middle of the paper, and then draw the other important locations that you remember in relation to your home. For example, locate the corner store where you bought candy, the local school, where your best friend lived, the park where you played, the scary house with the angry neighbor and mean dog that chased you. This part is a creative exercise €“ it does not have to be a precise map drawn to exact scale. Instead, I want you to think about this as your childhood world the social space in which you lived AS YOU REMEMBER IT. YOU WILL NOT BE TURNING THIS IN!!!

2. Your WRITTEN ASSIGNMENT, submitted thru Safe Assign is this:

A. First write a detailed section (1-2 paragraphs) DESCRIBING your childhood world. Tell me WHERE (City/State/Country, etc.) this is and WHEN (1990s when you were 5, 2002 when you were 13, etc.) Was this an urban space, a rural space, a suburban space? Was your neighborhood a safe space or a dangerous space? Explain how you felt comfortable, at home here.

B. Now, write another detailed section about your childhood neighborhood from your contemporary, adult memory. Some of you may have moved far away from this childhood neighborhood; others may still be living in the same place. Still, this neighborhood has certainly changed over the years. Tell me about these changes. For example, is the playground, corner store still there, or has it been torn down? What meaning do you make from recalling your childhood past? What places/activities do you miss from your childhood? Is there anything that you are happy to leave behind in your childhood past (Bullies, curfews, boring social life, etc.) Please type this up in your word processor program and submit it thru Safe Assign link by the stated time.